On the 14 of June 2024, for the first time in its democratic era, South Africa elected a coalition Government of National Unity (GNU). The GNU comprises the Democratic Alliance, the Patriotic Alliance and the Inkatha Freedom Party: a mix of leftist and centrist parties, bringing renewed perspectives to parliament. Prior to this, the African National Congress (ANC) had held the decision-making power within South Africa’s parliament for 30 years. Nina Foster, from the Carbon Trust’s Net Zero Intelligence Unit, sat down with Jarredine Morris, Co-head of Carbon Trust Africa, to discuss what the election result means for climate action in South Africa, and what challenges and opportunities lie ahead for the country.
South Africa’s Net Zero transition must protect the most vulnerable and capture opportunities for economic development.
Nina Foster: We know that a lot of climate change challenges are global, but how are these global challenges being tackled in Africa? What are the critical areas of the Net Zero transition that you and your team are focussing on across the continent?
Jarredine Morris: We support both public and private sectors around green and sustainable finance. For example, some of the work we've done is around developing green finance taxonomies for various countries on the continent, including South Africa. We also work with the financial sector, where we help them assess their asset base, determine the level of emissions in it and how they can work to decarbonize those.
We also do some work to strengthen the enabling environment for a just energy transition across the continent, and again, particularly in South Africa where we're faced with what we call the triple challenge : we have really high poverty, inequality and unemployment in South Africa, so it's really critical that as we transition to a low carbon, climate resilient economy, that we do so in a way that protects those most vulnerable and realize as many opportunities in the economy and in development more broadly as we can.
We have worked with the Presidential Climate Commission to look at ways that climate change needs to be considered as we develop our energy planning policy. We have also looked at ways to decarbonize our power sector that's heavily reliant on coal at present.
And then lastly, we work with the private sector to help them to develop their transition plans and decarbonisation plans. So a lot of carbon footprinting and strategy setting, particularly with a view to reaching Net Zero in critical sectors such as mining, metal, ICT, manufacturing and finance.
This new political era is likely to bring steady, but not radical, progress on climate.
Nina: For the first time in 30 years, the African National Congress [ANC] lost its majority and as a result, the country has formed a Government of National Unity.
This is quite a big political shift, which could have profound impacts on the approach to climate and the just energy transition you just mentioned. What are your thoughts on this? What does this mean for South Africa?
Jarredine: I think the previous administration under the ANC had already set a really good foundation in terms of climate change . We have a Climate Change Bill which was recently passed by both houses of Parliament. We have a fairly ambitious Nationally Determined Contribution commitment, recognising common but differentiated responsibilities. We have a Presidential Climate Commission — which has a similar structure to the UK’s Climate Change Committee — that is charged with advising, monitoring and evaluating the progress against both our climate change and our just transition goals. We do have a longer term ambition towards Net Zero, not yet specifically called a target*, and then we have our very first Just Energy Transition plan, which has now evolved into an implementation plan. We had landmark commitments from the International Partnership Group to fund that, so we do have a really, really good base.
The individual policies of the ANC and the Democratic Alliance are quite similar in terms of climate change. They both follow that trajectory that's already been set. So, I think we probably won't see anything too major in terms of advancement, but I think we will see the continuation of these plans, and the continued implementation of these plans in line with what's already been put out.
I expect we'll also see further progress around the unbundling of our state-owned power entity, Eskom. We already have a separate transmission company for South Africa, including a system operator and that has been a really key enabler for getting a lot more diverse, generation mix onto the grid, particularly from private sector players. Splitting out our distribution and generation as well, will open that market for a lot more competition, a lot more opportunity to bring in cleaner energy sources.
Nina: You mentioned that South Africa has an ambition to reach Net Zero but not yet a formal target. Do you think we'll ever have a Net Zero target in South Africa in law?
Jarredine: I do think there is a lot of ambition to set a Net Zero target for around mid-century, maybe not specifically 2050, and I think it's possible for us to get there. Our largest source of emissions is our power sector, so it presents a really great opportunity. In terms of that social challenge, there's no getting around it, but there are so many opportunities, even with that, to diversify our economy, to bring in cleaner energy.
Public understanding of climate change, energy planning and economic diversification should be three major priorities for the new government.
Nina: Even though climate change is a really tangible issue in South Africa now – two provinces recently declared a state of disaster following droughts or severe storms – climate wasn't a huge focus in the election campaign. It was much more focused on energy security, largely linked to the ongoing electricity crisis in the country that has led to the need for ‘load shedding’. I thought we could talk a little bit about how climate and energy security are related. Before we do that, can you explain what load shedding is?
Jarredine: Load shedding is the term we use for controlled power interruptions. It's specific and very technically designed to keep the grid from completely falling over. So, when it looks like there will not be enough supply to meet demand, they implement rotational planned outages, at scheduled times, so we can more or less plan ahead to make sure that the grid stays stable and doesn’t collapse.
We have had load shedding on and off – mostly on – since 2009. We're at around 70 days with no load shedding in South Africa, which is quite a big feat for us. I think a lot of that has to do with bringing more renewable energy online, particularly distributed renewable energy.
Nina: For this new government, what should their priorities be to reduce that load shedding, and deliver energy security while also delivering on climate?
Jarredine: There isn’t high public awareness in South Africa about the relationship between climate change and other socio-economic issues. As you mentioned, we do have these very extreme weather events . We've had severe storms in the KwaZulu-Natal region, and they’ve washed away people's homes, displaced many people. It's awful, but people don't really think about that in connection to climate change. They think about the need to find work. They think about the need to feed their families, the need for education . These are issues that feel a lot closer to home. And that's what a lot of the electioneering tends to be built on.
These problems are all connected to climate change and exacerbated by climate change, and part of what the Presidential Climate Commission has been doing so well is making those links and really raising the awareness around climate change and the impact.
In some areas where climate change is more well known, it's almost seen as a bit of a conspiracy. You know, “we cannot possibly develop if we don't industrialise. We can't possibly industrialise without fossil fuels, and so we need to kick out this Western agenda of telling us to leave our fossil fuels alone because that's anti-development. They just want to keep us underdeveloped.” There's a lot of rhetoric that plays on people's biases and insecurities that needs to be dispelled. I think that will raise the profile of climate change and the understanding of why it is important to everyone every day.
The second challenge to address is our energy planning. There's a lot more that can be done. We need to have an energy plan that is built much more around the idea of sustainable, reliable, affordable, modern, clean energy for all. If you use those principles as your guiding point when you're planning for your future electricity mix, I think it's quite natural that a shift to renewables will come out more strongly.
The last thing is, again, the opportunities around economic diversification: new value chains, new employment within those value chains, new ways of working with governments, more public private partnerships. There's just such an opportunity for growth and using that as a platform for more jobs, more diversity, being a leader on the continent in these technologies, in this space.
Nina: And, potentially, being a leader on the world stage as well. South Africa’s economy is still driven by the mineral supply chain, and we need those minerals for Net Zero. If South Africa can champion the most sustainable forms of governance, it could demonstrate to the naysayers that you can have sustainable supply chains for those Net Zero minerals and benefit as a country from supplying them.
Jarredine: Exactly.
Nina: Thank you, for a very insightful discussion. I'm really looking forward to seeing how your team supports the transition, Jarredine.
*This conversation was recorded on 16 June 2024. On 23 July, more than two years after it was first formally proposed, South Africa’s Climate Change Bill was passed into law. Read Jarredine’s reflection on this significant development here.
